JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Mother Nature will put a squeeze play on Jacksonville (Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia), and the result maybe as much as 8″ of rain for a few folks. Especially for those who live west of Jacksonville.
The players involved with the squeeze play include a large high pressure to our north, and of course, Cristobal over the Gulf of Mexico. Now normally, the high pressure dominates our weather when there is a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico. The result in this scenario is we (Jacksonville) see beautiful weather over Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia (outside of an inland afternoon/evening storm).
Not this time.
The massive gyre of deep tropical moisture that has been festering over Central America into the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico is moving northward. By the way, I can trace back Arthur’s and Bertha’s beginnings from this gyre of moisture. The gyre has been there since May. It is an immense area which would be normally seen in late August and September. Not this year.
Again, deep tropical moisture will be flowing north and then running into the large high pressure area, this will allow all the moisture to converge along I-10 from Jacksonville to Houston, Texas. The heaviest amounts of rain will be from I-75 to Pensacola and just east of where Cristobal ultimately makes landfall in Louisiana.
Various forecast models respond by indicating very heavy rains will be produced overnight Saturday through Sunday evening. See images below.
Hunker down and best to stay alert to the bands of heavy rains that will be moving across the area.
Worst of the rains will be overnight into sunrise Sunday and maybe again later Sunday evening.
There will be flooding and ponding of water across the area, in particular concern maybe along Black Creek in Clay County. It has been a while since we have had a rapid rise along the banks and this could easily happen very fast overnight.
Severe weather may also be a threat but only on isolated situations.
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